Pension schemes versus real estate

The demographic, economic and social changes that have characterized the last decades, and the dramatic financial crisis that has taken place since 2008, have led to a demand for structural changes in the pension sector and a growing interest in individual pension products. Hence the need, for most elderly people, to liquidate their fixed assets, which are usually the homes in which they live. This highlights products such as reverse mortgages and domestic reversibility plans. Within this context, we propose a contractual scheme where an immediate life annuity is obtained by paying a single-premium in the form of real estate rights (RERs), for example by transferring to an insurer the property title of a house or a similar realty, while keeping its usufruct or a restricted bundle of rights. The level of the installments depends on the fair value of the transferred RER at the contract’s issue, the life expectancy of the insured and the expected growth rate of the real estate market value. The contract design is developed by considering the control of the financial risk inherent in the contract itself, because of the prospective changes in the value of the RERs, and the level of the insurer’s leverage. Finally, we provide some numerical evidence of the proposed contractual structure, in order to compare the level of the installments according to the house return forecasts in different European countries

The dependency premium based on a multifactor model for dependent mortality data

As shown in the literature, the dependence structure in mortality data cannot be ignored in projecting future trends, in particular for a group of similar populations characterized by common long run relationships. We propose a new multifactor model for capturing common and specific features of the trend over time. We implement the model and investigate its impact on actuarial valuations, through the introduction of the concept of the dependency premium

Seasonal undernutrition in rural Ethiopia:

Marked seasonal variability of both production- and consumption is characteristic of virtually all farming systems in the developing world. This study examines the magnitude and significance of seasonal undernutrition in south central Ethiopia, southern Shewa and Zigwa Boto, a peasant association in the Gurage Zone. The study seeks to answer five questions: (1)Does seasonal energy stress affect individuals of various age groups and sexes differently? (2)Do members of the same household show divergent responses to seasonal energy stress? (3)What are the functional consequences of different levels of adult undernutrition? (4)Are the current anthropometric cut-off points for adults appropriate for rural Ethiopia? (5)What household characteristics are associated with vulnerability to seasonal undernutrition? A number of important findings emerge from this research.....The study clarifies some points of contention in the field of adult undernutrition and shows how seasonal undernutrition operates as an intermittent warning signal, reminding us not to miss opportunities to promote good nutrition throughout the life cycle.Nutrition, Ethiopia, Malnutrition., Food crops., Climate.,

Message from the ICSC 2012 workshop co-chairs

Welcome to the proceedings containing the papers from two workshops selected for presentation at the Sixth IEEE International Conference on Semantic Computing (ICSC 2012) in Palermo, Italy, September 19–21, 2012

Retrospective Cost Adaptive Control for Systems with Unknown Nonminimum-Phase Zeros

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90721/1/AIAA-2011-6203-626.pd

Holocene slip rate variability along the Pernicana fault system (Mt. Etna, Italy): Evidence from offset lava flows

The eastern flank of the Mount Etna stratovolcano is affected by extension and is slowly sliding eastward into the Ionian Sea. The Pernicana fault system forms the border of the northern part of this sliding area. It consists of three E-W−oriented fault sectors that are seismically active and characterized by earthquakes up to 4.7 in magnitude (M) capable of producing ground rupture and damage located mainly along the western and central sectors, and by continuous creep on the eastern sector. A new topographic study of the central sector of the Pernicana fault system shows an overall bell-shaped profile, with maximum scarp height of 35 m in the center of the sector, and two local minima that are probably due to the complex morphological relation between fault scarp and lava flows. We determined the ages of lava flows cut by the Pernicana fault system at 12 sites using cosmogenic 3He and 40Ar/39Ar techniques in order to determine the recent slip history of the fault. From the displacement-age relations, we estimate an average throw rate of ∼2.5 mm/yr over the last 15 k.y. The slip rate appears to have accelerated during the last 3.5 k.y., with displacement rates of up to ∼15 mm/yr, whereas between 3.5 and 15 ka, the throw rate averaged ∼1 mm/yr. This increase in slip rate resulted in significant changes in seismicity rates, for instance, decreasing the mean recurrence time of M ≥ 4.7 earthquakes from ∼200 to ∼20 yr. Based on empirical relationships, we attribute the variation in seismic activity on the Pernicana fault system to factors intrinsic to the system that are likely related to changes in the volcanic system. These internal factors could be fault interdependencies (such as those across the Taupo Rift, New Zealand) or they could represent interactions among magmatic, tectonic, and gravitational processes (e.g., Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii). Given their effect on earthquake recurrence intervals, these interactions need to be fully assessed in seismic hazard evaluations

Data-Based Model Refinement Using Retrospective Cost Optimization

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/83642/1/AIAA-2010-7889-194.pd

Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach

Recently the interest in the development of country and longevity risk models has been growing. The investigation of long-run equilibrium relationships could provide valuable information about the factors driving changes in mortality, in particular across ages and across countries. In order to investigate cross-country common longevity trends, tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence become essential. On one hand, it is necessary to take into account either the dependence for adjacent age groups or the dependence structure across time in a single population setting-a sort of intradependence structure. On the other hand, the dependence across multiple populations, which we describe as interdependence, can be explored for capturing common long-run relationships between countries. The objective of our work is to produce longevity projections by taking into account the presence of various forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependencies in the error processes of multiple populations, considering mortality data from different countries. The algorithm that we propose combines model-based predictions in the Lee-Carter (LC) framework with a bootstrap procedure for dependent data, and so both the historical parametric structure and the intragroup error correlation structure are preserved. We introduce a model which applies a sieve bootstrap to the residuals of the LC model and is able to reproduce, in the sampling, the dependence structure of the data under consideration. In the current article, the algorithm that we build is applied to a pool of populations by using ideas from panel data; we refer to this new algorithm as the Multiple Lee-Carter Panel Sieve (MLCPS). We are interested in estimating the relationship between populations of similar socioeconomic conditions. The empirical results show that the MLCPS approach works well in the presence of dependence